I’ve seen projects that count the confirmed KIA by name from social media commemorations,. and they arrive at like Russian 72k KIA, 68k Ukranian KIA. Russia does not have a 10:1 casualty rate.
Edit: I don’t know why we shouldn’t accept the named KIA projects as being an effective lower-bound estimate of those killed. if we accept around 70,000 Russians have died, and assume that there are significantly more russian non-KIA casualties than KIA, then not even the Russian MOD is claiming numbers that would be 10:1. Does the Slava Rossiya crew on Hexbear think there are over 2 million Ukranian casualties? in Febuary, Russia said 444,000 Ukranians killed and wounded.
They do. They have air superiority and really much more of everything including morale
We also know:
- Ukraine has been getting slowly pushed back
- Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed
Abandoning a position because you can’t hold it usually involves lots of deaths. Similarly, moving on a position but getting pushed back seems like it would aldo be pretty costly.
I’m skeptical of 10:1, but I’m also skeptical of 1:1.
