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As I’m a bit of a dummy, could someone explain this series of doomposts by Ian Welsh? My understanding is:

  • Russia will stop supplying hydrocarbons and minerals to the West as it’s being paid in dollars it can’t spend
  • The West will encounter a massive depression due to the resulting supply shocks, which will be met with further austerity and money printing to prop up the wealthy via the stock market
  • There will be an emergent Russian/Chinese partnership that establishes a new global economic order

Is that the general gist?

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Yeah, its basically the hexbear line of reasoning–these sanctions will have tremendous blowback on nato countries and will push the rest of the world towards China. It remains to be seen just what nato countries will do when the blowback really hits…

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Likely blame immigrants and social justice. Seems to be the pattern

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:jokerfied:

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#2 is not that simple, corporate credit is essential for a large amount of zombie corporations so that they can avoid bankruptcy. These corporations(after paying tons of bonuses and absurd salaries of course) are barely able to service their existent debt and this is going to get worse regardless, there is nothing that can be done here other than a crash.

But yes #3 is the overall conclusion, and it can’t even be stopped. China would need a complete shift away from their socialism by 2050 plans after Xi and Russia would need to make another deal with the devil and hope that going back to the old(prewar) status quo is ideal AND that they can finaly trust the US one last time.

All of that is unlikely but not impossible, and if that ends up happening it is ok realy because it will be the end of humanity anyway, the climate change clock is ticking we only have 1 maybe 2 decades left to change the world.

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