What outcomes does everyone find most likely or interesting or amusing?
Obviously there’s a good chance we won’t know tomorrow or the next day due to legal disputes but it’s interesting to speculate.
Personally I find myself thinking of the following outcomes either because I find them likely or because I find them amusing or in “one can dream” fashion:
Outcome: Biden wins cleanly or with a little mess, Trump cannot deny it and they cannot destroy enough votes or use the Supreme Court to keep him in power.
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Scenario A: Trump makes a fuss and calls it all rigged but just accepts it when the date rolls around, he starts a media network or becomes a personality for the reactionary right and President Biden either outright pardons him or announces a refusal to investigate or take action against him to “promote healing our divided nation”.
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Possibly the most boring outcome but not entirely out of the question. People might bring up NY’s investigations against them but I assume for the purposes of this they’re dropped or the governor pardons him or he gets a slap on the wrist. The reasoning I think would be clear, as the President of the US, even an inattentive one he had access to the most secret, classified aspects of our spy and military programs and if imprisoned or overwise made enemy of the state would be terrified he would defect and spill those secrets to an enemy. Plus it would set a dangerous precedent that presidents could be held accountable for their actions.
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Scenario B: Which brings us to scenario B. A significantly more amusing result where Trump does much the same but out of fear of prosecution he flees the country at the last minute to say Russia and hands over a pile of highly secret and sensitive US defense information to Putin in exchange for asylum and the rights to build a hotel chain in Russia.
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I have to say if Trump loses I am sacrificing gamers to Lenin that this happens as it would cause such a shitstorm and so much damage to the US. Of course they’d be out to murk him for the rest of his life if he did but in a place like Russia they might not succeed if he was provided state security.
- Scenario C: Much the same as A but Trump actually goes to prison and/or is given the Kennedy treatment as he is a risk the intelligence state cannot take. I would maintain it is most likely he is brought up only on state charges as I do not think Biden would allow him to be charged at the federal level.
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Scenario D: Trump tries a coup but is dragged out on January 20th anyways, lots of violence from his supporters in the meantime, plenty of terrorist attacks, murders of liberals, attacks on minorities, militia groups going crazy and the FBI struggling to keep up.
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Probably one of the scariest scenarios for anyone living in the US. If he really incites his supporters and no one else on the reactionary right with clout tries to put a stop to it you could have an ongoing semi-insurgency although I doubt it would develop to open civil war and the Republicans would likely continue to be a force in politics.
Result of all scenarios: A competent imperialist is back in the white house! America’s allies and NATO sigh a sigh of relief at the civil Biden and his very civil (unlike Trump) caging of children on the southern border as well as his humanitarian drone strikes. Liberals go back to ignoring politics for the most part now that the ADULTS are back in charge, all is not good in America for liberals but it’s close enough, they feel safe and their country is good again. Those on the left are shut down viciously by liberals for daring to criticize Biden after all we’ve been through with Trump. The red scare 3.0 continues, antagonism towards Russia continues, the plot to isolate, encircle, fragment, and destroy China continues and America now has a more beloved figure-head with international appeal.
Also Pete Buttigieg is given a cabinet position for a year before being moved to head the CIA or state dept in preparation for his presidential run in 2024, he pushes a more inclusive imperialism with LGBTQ-CIA (but not black of course) voices in a dramatic rebranding effort launched with full media coverage, in celebration of pride month the CIA projects a rainbow onto Langley at night and drone strikes a wedding with a bomb that includes pride themed glitter.
Outcome: Trump wins, there are all kinds of irregularities, reports of slowed or lost ballots, the Supreme Court may have stepped in to stop counting or other shenanigans.
- Scenario A: Biden after some lawyering attempts fail concedes and calls on Trump to rule fairly in the interest of all Americans, Democrats take to the streets but eventually get bored and go home. More people than ever among the liberal populace feel America is broken for good and that there is a divide that cannot be healed. If the Democrats took the Senate they take solace in the idea that Trump will be impeached even though not enough Republicans will cross the aisle to do so.
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Scenario B: Biden does not concede, he calls the election stolen and calls on the military or whoever to remove Trump, he calls the Supreme Court illegitimate because of Trump’s appointments and insists Trump step down. Having no real power and the military not wanting to get involved nothing major happens but Biden and co continue to nurse and bring up the point the election was stolen and Trump is not a real president every time they’re on TV.
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Democrats take to the streets, try and organize strikes but because much of America isn’t unionized, because of the general attitude of individuality and because of the precarious financial situation for most Americans the strikes don’t manifest outside a few areas and although damaging to the economy they eventually go away without Trump stepping down. Again Democrats become despondent, they act like the end is upon them and spend their time viciously attacking the left.
- Scenario C: Much like B but the strikes and/or other pressure works and Trump steps down in exchange for a pardon from incoming President Pence. The Democrats cheer and talk of how much more civil Pence is as he signs the “women are no longer people executive order of 2021”.
Result of all scenarios: America is more divided than ever. Many liberals who saw Trump as a fluke begin to despise the nation and see it as irredeemable, separatist sentiment grows in places like California. America’s allies despair at having someone so unreliable and chaotic at the helm, her alliances are strained. The US leaves several international orgs as scheduled in Trump’s second term further diminishing US soft power. Trump continues his war on China but is a poor tactician, the Democrats attempt to help him in this but more countries now see with Trump’s second election a volatile and unreliable US and attempt to straddle pleasing the US with maintaining ties with China. The red scare 3.0 continues, Democrats are downright deranged at this point with Russia and/or maybe China hysteria as the blame for Trump’s re-election, domestic enemies while condemned are ignored in favor of a spicy foreign intrigue plot invented out of whole cloth. Still however the domestic left is blamed.
Also John Bolton is given a show on MSNBC where he goes over how Russia/China got Trump a second term and becomes very popular with liberals.
Disclaimer: These are not highly scientific predictions. Just kind of fun speculation within the realm of the plausible. Share your own!
The world actually ended in 2012 and this is Hell
I think that the core objective of the minds behind the new fascist wave is to delegitimize the state* to such a degree that the common person thinks it’s better to just undo this absurd, stupid machine once and for all; that way, we’ll naturally look towards the private sector to run things freely without the clearly insane state ruining everything. At least this is what appears to me in my country.
That said, Trump’s play will probably be one that hurts the credibility of the institutions the most. Outcome two or something similar is my bet.
*Minus police and military
I am insulted no one has downvoted this.