Mr. Putin is already planning for victory. His latest so-called peace proposal — in which Russia keeps occupied territory and Ukraine is banned from joining NATO — was dismissed as propaganda by many Western leaders. But it is, in fact, the most realistic scenario for how this war will pan out.
Western media again living years in the past. There was a time when this was indeed the most realistic scenario if Ukraine and its western handlers had agreed to come to the table and negotiate. Maybe Summer 2022 this would have been acceptable to Russia. Unfortunately, back then Washington and Kiev were still dreaming of total victory and regime change in Russia. Well now that time is long past and there are new realities on the ground that have to be acknowledged.
I was reading articles from supposed “realists” and even some comments from a lot of leftists who somehow less than a year ago still thought that the conflict could be resolved by accepting Russia’s pre-SMO demands, of giving up Crimea, no NATO, autonomous Donbass and maybe referendums down the line. Completely ignoring the fact that the Donbass already had referendums and already joined Russia over a year prior. As did Zaporozhie and Kherson. These people need to stop living in the past.
The problem is that they live in an echo chamber and never listen to what the Russians are saying. Since the referendums were held Russia has said consistently and clearly that the return of all four Oblasts to Russia in their full administrative borders, not just the parts that the Russians currently control, is a minimum pre-condition for negotiations. The NYT and whoever told them to write this article still don’t get this. They still labor under the delusion that they can freeze the conflict along the current contact line.
And as of last week i think even this offer that had been on the table for over a year has now been rescinded as a result of the Kiev junta’s little PR stunt. The next offer that Russia makes will likely have significantly harsher terms now. Expect the next NYT article six months from now to be: “Ukraine may have to give up all four Russia annexed Oblasts in their entirety”, but by that point the situation will look much worse for Ukraine and Russia’s demands will have again changed to reflect the new reality on the ground.
The West needs to understand that any offer that Russia makes is for a limited time only. If you are losing a war and you refuse today’s offer, the next one will only be worse for you. You can’t just turn the clock back to when you were in a better position and ask for the offer that was made way back then. The more you keep fighting hoping for better terms the worse that it will be for you in the end. But frankly i don’t think they are capable psychologically of accepting this. I think they prefer losing Ukraine entirely rather than negotiate with Russia.
I agree, this bit here is absolutely delusional
A peace deal on Mr. Putin’s terms will be bad for Ukraine. It will lose nearly 20 percent of its territory and around five million people. But that loss will be mitigated by the remarkable thwarting of Mr. Putin’s original plan to take over Kyiv and destroy Ukraine as a nation. War will stop. There will be dead to mourn, wounded to heal and a country to rebuild. Ukraine’s reputation on the global stage will be higher than ever and membership of the European Union will be in sight.
They seem to think that Russia will just stop and then the west can just go back to bringing Ukraine into EU, NATO, and so on. The reality is that whatever is left of Ukraine is going to be under tight political control by Russia going forward. Any scenario of an Ukraine that will be aligned with the west is long gone now.
i dont see why ukraine would be worried about losing 5M people. these are the people they wanted to exterminate anyway.
they want to be rid of the people, they’re worried about losing the real estate.
Ukraine’s reputation on the global stage will be higher than ever
Oh I don’t know about that… does she realize that Europe is not, in fact, the “global stage?”
They can’t listen to what the Russians or saying, for that would destroy their entire premise.
…Mr. Putin’s original plan to take over Kyiv and destroy Ukraine as a nation.
This was never the plan. Putin, Lavrov, and Medvedev have been singing the same song since 2008 if not longer. They view NATO expansion and weapons placements encroaching on their border as an existential threat, and have said as much repeatedly. Imperial realists have said the same since 1991.
The idea that Putin himself wants to take over Ukraine and bring back the USSR is a strawman to beat all strawmen.
But imperialist capital forbid that they listen to the words of their opposition, let alone take them at face value. The expansion of empire must continue unabated.
But that loss will be mitigated by the remarkable thwarting of Mr. Putin’s original plan to take over Kyiv and destroy Ukraine as a nation.
What? That was never the stated objective. The whole three days to Kiev line didn’t from Russia either. Russia never wanted to destroy Ukraine as a nation, though that may very well be the functional result thanks to NATO.
Imagine trying to spin “our opponent didn’t destroy our capital!” as a victory when they weren’t even trying to do that.
That was never the stated objective
Obviously you can’t use official Russian government statements as evidence of Russia’s intent, because that would be Russian propaganda. The only authoritative reputable sources for Russia’s intent are privately owned US media outlets citing anonymous US state department officials.
I gotta give it to them, the whole Kiev in 3 days was a very clever bit of propaganda. They created an anchoring effect using a completely fictional scenario, and they’ve been measuring everything against that for the past two years. Anybody who’s not been following the war closely becomes easily convinced that Russia is doing a lot worse than it actually is as a result.
This is the exact cope I’ve been expecting for years. I think part of the point of the narrative of Putin the Conqueror introduced back in 2022 was so that when they lost they could claim they prevented him from achieving his objectives (even though he’s clearly going to get everything he said he wanted on day 1 lmao)
Did some searching, it comes from CIA director William Burns in 2022-03-08, you can see it here. It was actually 2 days.
“His own military’s performance has been largely ineffective,” Burns said of Putin. “Instead of seizing Kyiv within the first two days of the campaign, which is what his plan was premised upon, after nearly two full weeks they still have not been able to fully encircle the city.”
If you go a bit further back, you have “sources” from the CIA already spouting the 2 days line a couple weeks earlier. Here’s an example from the day after the start of the SMO.
US intelligence officials are concerned that Kyiv could fall under Russian control within days, according to two sources familiar with the latest intelligence.
It goes like this, US Intel are worried it could happen -> report it as Putin hinging his whole plan on it happening -> if it happens it’s because it was a massive gamble and “unfair” in some way, if it doesn’t happen it was an utter failure and Putin threw away his whole country.
A week later, business insider reports it as though Russia failed in the war and practically lost, and actually, it’s Russian intelligence which is bad for wrongly predicting their victory. Which the US intel also predicted. Go figure.
Narrative created. Consent manufactured. Redditor fooled.
P.S.: is there a Ukrainian civil war megathread I could read and contribute to somewhere? It’s fun to look up these little lies but it’s been 2 years now and there’s just too much stuff to hold on one’s head.
like a bully who realizes the teacher isn’t coming
Such babybrained shit. I cannot read most of the NYT articles for this reason. The bit at the beginning about chicken kiev feels it’s straight out of a terrible novel.
Arabic media is reporting that the Kursk invasion has failed and Russian troops captured tens of Ukrainian soldiers
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Next up in a groundbreaking expose by NYT: USS Maine was a boiler accident.
I have such a deep hatred for NYT, it’s undescribable. Probably because they have gotten more brown and black people killed than the turner diaries by 10000x
