So far, president Vladimir Putin and top-level Russian government figures have hinted at taking Kharkov, Odessa and 3 other regions. What do you think is going to be their way of solving the crisis in Ukraine, depending on the particular way the West and their fascist puppet in Kiev choose to go? Which way do you think is the most rational?
I’ll give a disappointing answer which is that i don’t know and i don’t think anyone really knows right now.
The only two things i am sure of is that Russia will win and that it will not renounce the regions it has already annexed. Beyond that i don’t know what will happen, and as for the intentions of the Kremlin i think several possibilities are still being kept open and which exactly of these they will choose will depend on how things continue to develop and how Ukraine and the West behave…that is whether they accept Russia’s terms or not. If they refuse then Russia will have to go further and take more. How much more exactly and what will become of the rest of Ukraine i won’t speculate on because too many factors are at play that are still unknown.
But i will say this about the topic of annexations: i think the best solution is not annexation but a restoration of a union of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine (that is a territorially reduced Ukraine because even in this scenario it is not getting the eastern territories back…the people there simply would never agree to it), but i also don’t think that is going to happen under a bourgeois Russian government (though if the KPRF come to power after Putin retires we may see them eventually make a push in this direction).
But i will say this about the topic of annexations: i think the best solution is not annexation but a restoration of a union of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine
Barring the fact this is almost definitely not going to happen- can the deeply “Ukranian” western Ukranians ever be trusted back into a union with the peoples they have repeatedly expressed the desire to torment, terrorize, and commit pogroms against, though?
It may not sound the most “pure” communist of me- and it’s certainly not idealistic whatsoever- but if you ask me, the Banderites can live in whatever failed rump state remains; I imagine no sane Russian or Belarusian wants them as neighbors nowadays. In an ideal world they would probably even have little snippets carved off- some to Hungary, some to Poland, some to Romania- hell, even some to Slovakia even if it’s just some puny snippet of the Carpathians.
Again i have to stress that this is not at all what i think Russia will do or even intends to do, but i personally think leaving a Nazified rump Ukraine is a bad idea. Thorough denazification on the whole territory of Ukraine has to occur for the sake of preventing conflicts like this in the future. And that cannot happen if they remain under a western proxy regime.
I think a lot of those who comment on this conflict are excessively worried about the possibility of insurgency or are squeamish about Russia or a de-nazified Ukrainian government having to take on the task of cleaning out the Nazis in western Ukraine. Firstly Russia has dealt with this problem before, they know how to suppress an insurgency if they really want to.
And secondly, this isn’t the 1940s and 50s anymore, few people in this day and age in this part of the world are going to leave the comforts of modern life for years at a time to wage a guerilla war, especially after being thoroughly defeated in a war of attrition in which the most motivated and able fighters have been eliminated. Ukraine is not Afghanistan, its demographics (especially now), its social structures, its terrain, are not suitable for a prolonged insurgency of that kind.
And besides, not all who live there are Banderites, and those who are will fall largely into two categories: those who can and should be re-educated and de-radicalized after the model employed by China in Xinjiang, and those who cannot who will leave of their own accord rather than live under a union with Russia. Let them become the West’s problem since the West loves Nazis so much. The few who insist on staying and causing trouble will be caught when they commit a crime. As i said, i think a country like Russia doesn’t need to be afraid of tackling this issue, the only thing they lack imo is the political will at the moment.
I am also categorically opposed to allowing Poland to receive a single inch of Ukrainian territory as that sets a precedent that threatens Belarus. (And their historical claim is weak anyway, it is based on the illegitimate annexation of a territory that was never majority Polish to begin with, hence why the Curzon Line was drawn where it was after WWI.) Granting other countries’ claims can be considered if and when they exit NATO and become friendly to Russia. Granting any NATO country territory to move even more NATO forward bases and weapons into should not happen.
Shit that’s a good point about the terrain, Ukraine is basically gm_flatgrass
Putin is not a socialist. Will they just be duganist? Maybe some basic lessons in humanity like killing ethnic minority civilians shouldn’t be celebrated?
I expect Russia will annex most of Ukraine except the western territories where most nationalists are. Interestingly enough, we may see Hungary, Poland, and Romania jump on the annexation bandwagon as well at that point. All of them have been making noises at one time or another, and if it starts looking like Ukraine is falling over, they might decide to be opportunistic.
Best case scenario for Ukraine at this point is that it’s going to be a nonfunctional rump state. Russia already annexed a lot of industrial and agricultural territory, and Putin just said that Russia will need a buffer to protect against long range NATO missiles. This implies that Russia is planning to turn a few hundred kilometres into a buffer zone. I doubt Putin would be publicly stating this if the decision wasn’t already made.
I suppose they could get opportunistic, though of course they’ll have to deal with the Banderites and all the Nazis themselves. I wonder how much weaponry that “was lost to corruption” will suddenly pop up there.
Not to mention the migration crisis that might be created.
I certainly hope they will, for the decent Ukranians’ sake, if no one else’s. Whatever is left is going to be Banderite-administered Blackrock fiefdom territory.
Certainly every eastern, Russian-identifying region should be liberated fully. If Kiev and surrounding area is too far gone, maybe it could be turned into a demilitarized zone. The Banderites should be wiped from the earth (like with all Nazis) but since that isn’t going to happen, they should be contained to Galicia and Volhynia, nothing else; their very existence is already an insult to any sense of decency and humanity and the lives of tens of millions.
The country has been divided between east and west for decades and I doubt Russia would want to permanently annex any of the western regions. It seems like they are focusing on the east for now.
I think they should allow regions in the east to join Russia if they want to and the rest of Ukraine should stay independent but should be required to denazify and never join NATO. They should also reimplement some of the Minsk agreements if some eastern parts decide to stay in Ukraine.
I think they want a buffer zone at least, so I expect that in any event, annex or no, they’ll try and force some kind of concession from Ukraine where NATO membership is an instant red line. Other than that I have no idea
I could see them taking Odessa though
Actually now that I think about it, the recent NATO saber rattling means that taking Odessa and cutting Ukraine off from the sea now is the smart thing to do. If the Euro vassal states are serious about beating the war drum, the prospect of having to attack through a landlocked region while their enemy controls the sea might be enough of a deterrent to change their calculus.
